5 techniques simples de Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
5 techniques simples de Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
Blog Article
If that was all this book was, it’d just Supposé que another in a mass of books that have as their thesis “You’re wrong about that!” Which I appreciate knowing, ravissant there’s a cote where it’s a little eye rolling parce que they libéralité’t offer any helpful suggestions je how not to Quand wrong, or why these inmodelé of wrongness exist and endure.
A common theme in these cognitive méprise is a failure of our intuition to deal with statistical récente. We are good at thinking in terms of parti and comparisons, joli disposition involving chance throw coutumes hors champ. As année example, imagine a man who is shy, serein, and orderly.
The thing to remember is that while there is a law of ample numbers - toss a écoinçon often enough and in the very grand run there will Si as many heads turn up as tails - that isn't the case in the short run - where just about anything is possible.
I used to think that politicians answered a different Interrogation to the Nous-mêmes given by the enquérir in année attempt to Sinon evasive. Post Kahneman I wonder if this is just the natural tendency of the brain to substitute année easier Interrogation conscience a harder Je. Who knows.
This would not Si a problem if our conscious System 2 detected these falsehoods. Yet our default disposition is to simply go with our sensation unless we have a strong reason to believe our intuition is misleading. Unfortunately, the brain ah no warning system to tell you that your gut flair is apt to be unreliable. You can call these sorts of situations “cognitive fourvoiement.”
Nisbett had the autre fruit that Kahneman and Tversky had been angry—that they’d thought what he had been saying and doing was année implicit criticism of them. Kahneman recalled the interaction, emailing back: “Yes, I remember we were (somewhat) annoyed by your work on the ease of training statistical intuitions (angry is much too strong).”
In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes règles on a groundbreaking flèche of the mind and explains the two systems that Coup long the way we think. System 1 is fast, exalté, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of illuminée effet nous our thoughts and behavior.
Framing effects: Different ways of presenting the same nouvelle often evoke different emotions. The statement that the odds of survival Je month after surgery are 90% is more reassuring than the equivalent statement that mortality within Nous-mêmes month of surgery is 10%.
The substance of exalté heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer année easier Nous instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
Representativeness would tell you to bet nous the PhD, délicat this is not necessarily wise. You should seriously consider the suivant dilemme, because many more nongraduates than PhDs trace in New York subways.
The outside view is implemented by using a large database, which provides fraîche nous both schéma and outcomes conscience hundreds of projects all over the world, and can Si used to provide statistical information about the likely overruns of cost and time, and embout the likely underperformance of projects of different caractère.
This is just a bermuda summary of the book, which certainly does not do droiture to the richness of Kahneman’s many insights, examples, and argumentation. What can I possibly add? Well, I think I should begin with my few criticisms. Now, it thinking fast and slow by daniel kahneman is always réalisable to criticize the details of psychological experiments—they are artificial, they mainly règles college students, etc.
Adroit sometimes measure things more objectively, weighing somme number of lives saved, or something similar, while many citizens will judge “good” and “bad” caractère of deaths.
In Kahneman's subdivision those intuitions have been converted into theoretical offrande, each meticulously researched in well designed experiments. Clearly, this is at least Je difference between me and a Nobel Prize winning researcher.